Risk Wire — 28 July 2026

⚡ Energy — oil

Brent unwinds the war premium. The global benchmark fell roughly 4% on Friday to settle near $97/bbl — its biggest one-day drop since late June — after the US and Iran each paused strikes over the weekend amid renewed diplomacy. Brent had opened the week near $100.57 and WTI near $92.39. Risk lens: a pure geopolitical-premium move, not a balance move. Hedgers who lifted protection at the highs now carry the reversal risk. — Bloomberg · Fortune

Chokepoint risk has not gone away. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was running at about 34% of normal as of 14 July, and Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have raised the risk that a second export route is disrupted. Roughly 20 mb/d — about a fifth of global liquids consumption — normally transits Hormuz. Risk lens: freight, war-risk insurance and voyage time remain the live exposures even when flat price falls. — U.S. Bank

🔥 Gas & LNG

Henry Hub slips below $3. The prompt month settled at $2.91/MMBtu on 22 July, ending a 30-session run above $3, as strong production and comfortable storage kept the domestic balance loose. — American Gas Association · EIA STEO

TTF round-trips on Hormuz. European gas spiked toward $19.2/MMBtu for August delivery on 17 July (from $16.3 a week earlier) on LNG supply-disruption fears, then gave most of it back as hostilities paused — front-month TTF has since traded near €40/MWh, its lowest since April. Risk lens: textbook basis behaviour — TTF and JKM priced the disruption, Henry Hub barely moved. A US-hub hedge would not have covered a European exposure. — Ember

🔌 Power & carbon

Negative prices keep piling up. EU bidding zones recorded roughly 399 hours of negative day-ahead prices in the 30 days to 13 July, led by Spain with 85 hours — the flexibility gap showing up directly in the price. Risk lens: shape and volume risk, not flat price, is where renewables-heavy portfolios bleed. — Ember · IEA Electricity 2026

EUAs hold above €80 through July, with speculative length building ahead of the ETS reform package — policy remains the dominant driver of carbon price. — IEA

🪙 Metals

Copper stays structurally tight. Copper traded near $6.30/lb, up about 3% on the month and roughly 12% year-on-year, after a Chinese crackdown on VAT fraud curtailed scrap availability and pulled demand toward refined imports. — Trading Economics · S&P Global

Gold’s correction sits inside an intact bull case — central-bank demand and geopolitical fragmentation still underpin it, with J.P. Morgan Research looking for $6,000/oz by year-end. — J.P. Morgan

📊 Macro & cross-asset

The Fed decides tomorrow (29 July) with the funds rate at 3.50–3.75%. Futures put the odds firmly on a hold, but — unusually — the tail is a hike, not a cut. Risk lens: an energy-driven inflation impulse is the hardest kind for a central bank to offset, and it links commodity risk straight into rates and FX books. — Forbes Fed tracker

Equities shrug, then rally. The S&P 500 ended Friday near flat, weighed by chip names, before Asian indices and US futures jumped on Monday as Hormuz talks pushed oil lower. — CNBC · Fortune