Risk Wire › 13 Oct 2026
Daily brief
Risk Wire — 13 October 2026
Russia's diesel pledge covers only a fraction of lost exports, Brent holds above $105 as Houthi strikes reach deep into Saudi Arabia, and India's coal shortage spills into blackouts.
Oil / Products
Sourced from Bloomberg’s Energy Daily and Markets Daily.
Russia’s pledge to release 500,000 tons of diesel for export equals under 180,000 barrels a day, against 800,000 to 900,000 before Ukraine’s refinery strikes, and Moscow’s deputy prime minister says 3 million tons a month is possible only after December. — Bloomberg
Risk lens: Bullish (ULSD and European diesel cracks) — the deal does not restore meaningful supply before winter, so distillate tightness persists.
Brent traded above $105, at $105.60, as Houthi attacks struck deep into Saudi Arabia and Ukraine cast doubt on an energy ceasefire. — Bloomberg · Bloomberg
Risk lens: Bullish (Brent supply-security premium) — attacks now reach inland infrastructure, not just shipping.
Saudi Arabia is looking at expanding oil pipeline capacity to 10 million barrels a day to destinations outside the Persian Gulf. — Bloomberg
Risk lens: Neutral (Hormuz chokepoint exposure) — a long-dated hedge against closure, with no near-term effect on flows.
Gas & Power
Sourced from Bloomberg’s Energy Daily.
Indian factories, smelters and households are being hit by blackouts as plunging coal stockpiles at power stations ripple through the economy. — Bloomberg
Risk lens: Bullish (Indian spot power) — shortages are now cutting demand physically, so price spikes can recur at short notice.
Traders are piling into bearish US natural gas bets on a mild El Niño winter, though BloombergNEF finds Arctic cold snaps occur more often during El Niño events. — Bloomberg
Risk lens: Neutral (Henry Hub winter strip) — crowded short positioning leaves the market exposed to a squeeze on any cold outbreak.
Headlines are summarised in our own words for comment and analysis, with attribution and a link to the original publisher. Indicative only — not investment advice.