Risk Wire — 2 August 2026

Weekend edition, covering the week and month ended 31 July.

⚡ Energy — oil

July was the strongest month since March, and it was all risk premium. Brent settled $90.12/bbl and WTI $84.67 on 31 July, closing the month up 24% and 21% respectively. The move was not a demand story: it tracked the collapse of the US–Iran pause and the loss of safe transit through Hormuz. Risk lens: a 24% monthly move driven entirely by a supply chokepoint is the textbook case for separating flat-price risk from geopolitical-event risk. A delta hedge sized on normal volatility was under-hedged all month. — CNBC · EnergyNow

The tanker attacks are claimed, not confirmed. The IRGC said it struck tankers transiting Hormuz under US naval escort, and four more turned back. US and UK maritime security monitors have not confirmed the strikes. Risk lens: price is now moving on unverified claims. When the tape reacts to assertions that monitors can’t corroborate, headline risk is its own exposure — size positions for the possibility that the claim is wrong as well as right. — CNBC · Al Jazeera

🔥 Gas & LNG

One tanker cleared Hormuz and European gas fell below €60. TTF gave back much of the prior session’s gain on 31 July after reports that a Qatari LNG cargo had exited the strait safely. JKM settled back toward $17/MMBtu, still roughly 70% above pre-crisis levels. Risk lens: when a single vessel’s passage moves a continental benchmark, the market is pricing access, not molecules. That is a binary, headline-driven regime in which selling volatility is far more dangerous than the historical vol surface implies. — Trading Economics · Rabobank via FXStreet

QatarEnergy’s force majeure to European buyers now runs to at least end-September. Rabobank sees TTF at €51–52/MWh across Q3–Q4 and lifted its JKM forecast to $17.00–18.50/MMBtu. Risk lens: force majeure converts a price problem into a volume problem. A buyer fully hedged on TTF is still short the cargoes themselves — the exposure sits in supply obligations downstream, not on the curve. — Rabobank via FXStreet

🔌 Power & carbon

Carbon eased as the weather turned. EUA Dec-26 closed July at €81.29/t, inside a tight €79.4–82 range for the month. European energy complexes pulled back into month-end as cooler weather and improved supply let traders unwind risk premium, with both EU and UK carbon softening. Risk lens: carbon barely moved while gas swung violently — a reminder that EUAs price policy and cap tightness, not the energy shock of the week. Clean spark spreads widened from the fuel leg alone. — GMK Center · EU ETS

🪙 Metals

Gold crested $4,100 on the Fed hold, and silver is the higher-beta echo. Gold traded around $4,130/oz on 30 July after the FOMC, on a softer dollar and lower real yields; silver held near $58–59/oz, up roughly 65% year-on-year — but still far below January’s record near $121. Risk lens: silver’s round trip from $121 to $58 inside seven months is the cleaner risk lesson. A 65% year-on-year gain and a 50%+ drawdown can coexist in the same series; annual returns hide the path, and it is the path that triggers margin calls. — Yahoo Finance · CNBC

📊 Macro & cross-asset

The Fed held a fifth time — and the dissents wanted a hike. The FOMC kept the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on 29 July by 9–3, with three members voting to tighten. Equities fell on the day (S&P 500 −0.6%, Dow −840pts, −1.6%), the 10-year rose 5bp to 4.657% and the 30-year 9bp to 5.193%. Markets now price two 25bp hikes across the rest of 2026. Risk lens: a hold that sells off is a hawkish hold. With an energy-driven inflation impulse the Fed cannot offset, commodity risk is now transmitting straight into the rates book — the correlation assumption most portfolios still carry from the easing cycle is the wrong sign. — CNBC · US Treasury