Risk Wire — 13 August 2026

Gas & Power

Sourced from Bloomberg’s Green Daily.

Europe’s most important inland waterway is running dry with no relief in sight. Levels at Kaub, the Rhine’s shallowest point, have fallen to the lowest since records began in 1880, and may drop further as another heat wave bakes the continent this week. Forecasters say weeks of sustained rain would be needed to return the river to normal, meaning the crisis could drag into October. The Rhine carries freight through Europe’s industrial heartland from Switzerland to Rotterdam, and the disruption is already reaching steelmaker Thyssenkrupp, BASF and Lanxess. Lanxess said vessels are carrying significantly lighter loads and that with some loading points inaccessible it is switching to rail and road where it can, calling the situation “highly dynamic”. — Bloomberg

Risk lens: Bullish (German power and industrial input costs) — low Rhine levels hit energy twice: part-loaded barges raise delivered fuel costs while the same heat cuts hydro and cooling. Freight reprices first, and is rarely hedged.

Carbon

Sourced from Bloomberg’s Green Daily.

On cleaner jet fuel, the stick is beating the carrot. European airlines pulled well ahead on sustainable aviation fuel last year while US and Asian carriers fell further behind, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of dozens of airline environmental filings. IAG, the British Airways parent, led passenger airlines at 3.3% of its jet fuel from SAF, followed by Air France-KLM at 2.9% and Ryanair at 2.0%. US airlines ran between 0.3% and 1%. The gap tracks policy: EU and UK mandates requiring 2% SAF kicked in last year, with the UK obligation stepping up to 3.6% this year, while the US has avoided mandates amid airline opposition and relies on production incentives instead. With SAF costing two to three times conventional fuel, voluntary demand has stayed weak. IAG alone bought more than 99 million gallons against roughly 97 million consumed by all major US carriers. — Bloomberg · IATA

Risk lens: Bullish (EU/UK SAF obligation cost) — a stepping mandate against a thin compliance pool is a squeeze with a scheduled start date. Airlines carrying unhedged mandate exposure into a rising percentage are short a physically constrained commodity.

A dispute over how to count forest carbon has cost a standard-setter its technical lead. Tim Searchinger of Princeton is leaving his role as technical director of land-related issues at the World Resources Institute over what he describes as shortcomings in the Greenhouse Gas Protocol’s process for drafting new rules. Two camps are split between activity-based accounting, which separates human-caused change from natural processes, and the managed land proxy, which treats any change on managed forest land as human-caused. Critics warn the latter would let companies double count removals and claim credit for carbon stored naturally. — Bloomberg

Risk lens: Bearish (forestry-based credits) — the methodology is the asset. An unresolved split at the standard-setter reprices existing forestry inventory, and no price hedge covers methodology risk.