Risk Wire › 28 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Risk Wire — 28 September 2026
Brent climbed back above $105 after Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz plan and fears of a US diesel export curb split WTI from Brent, while new non-Gulf LNG supply has so far kept gas from following oil higher.
Oil / Products
Sourced from The Economic Times’ Morning Newsletter, Bloomberg’s Morning Briefing Asia and Bloomberg Opinion.
Brent rose $1.32 to $105.64 a barrel early Monday after Donald Trump rejected Iran’s plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran said it would not soften its seven-day proposal. — The Economic Times · Bloomberg
Risk lens: Bullish (front-month Brent volatility) — with talks stalled but Trump expecting them to resume this week, prices are hostage to headlines. Expect overnight gaps in both directions.
WTI lost 7.9% last week while Brent edged up 0.4%, on concern that Washington could ban diesel exports to cap record US diesel prices. — The Economic Times
Risk lens: Bullish (Brent–WTI spread) — an export curb would strand US barrels at home and tighten Europe. Books hedging Brent-linked exposure with WTI carry widening basis risk.
Japan, which imports 99.9% of its oil, is signalling a move away from Middle Eastern supply after the Hormuz shock, Javier Blas argues. — Bloomberg
Risk lens: Neutral (Dubai-linked crude) — a slow reallocation, not a flow shock. It matters for term supply contracts more than for prompt spreads.
Gas & Power
Sourced from The Economic Times.
NYMEX Henry Hub has traded around $2.50–$3.50/MMBtu through the West Asia crisis, held down by US dry-gas output that EIA estimates will reach about 110.6 Bcf/d in 2026. — The Economic Times
Risk lens: Bearish (prompt Henry Hub) — domestic supply, not geopolitics, sets the US price. Oil-gas cross hedges have lost effectiveness this year.
LNG
Sourced from The Economic Times.
Gulf LNG loadings fell about 35 bcm year on year between March and June, according to the IEA, while non-Gulf output rose nearly 18%, or around 27 bcm, softening the supply shock. — The Economic Times
Risk lens: Bullish (winter JKM/TTF volatility) — the cushion rests on Asian demand destruction and mild weather. A cold snap with Qatar still constrained leaves little spare supply.
Carbon
Sourced from The Economic Times.
An ICRIER working paper estimates India’s steel exports to the EU could fall 24% under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and Britain has agreed to recognise India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme for its own levy. — The Economic Times
Risk lens: Neutral (EUA) — Indian mills selling into Europe now carry EU carbon price exposure through CBAM. Few have ever hedged it.
Headlines are summarised in our own words for comment and analysis, with attribution and a link to the original publisher. Indicative only — not investment advice.