Risk Wire › 26 Sep 2026
Daily brief
Risk Wire — 26 September 2026
Brent slipped back below $106 on Hormuz deal talk, record freight left Iraq hawking last-minute cargoes, India vowed to keep exporting diesel whatever Washington decides, and the Dutch moved to scrap EU gas-storage targets.
Oil / Products
Sourced from Bloomberg’s Evening Briefing Asia and Energy Daily, and The Economic Times.
Brent fell below $106 a barrel after rising more than 7% over the previous two days, with WTI near $93, as US and Iranian negotiators explored a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. — Bloomberg
Risk lens: Neutral (Brent volatility) — two-day moves of 7% both ways are now routine. Size stops and margin buffers for headline-driven gaps, not trend.
Iraq is offering buyers last-minute crude cargoes as record freight rates make shipments from deep inside the Gulf harder to place. — Bloomberg
Risk lens: Bearish (Basrah OSP differentials) — freight, not crude, is setting delivered cost. Watch basis between Gulf grades and Atlantic Basin barrels widen.
India, now roughly 10% of global seaborne diesel supply, will keep exporting even if the US bans overseas sales, Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said. — Bloomberg · The Economic Times
Risk lens: Bearish (European gasoil cracks) — Indian barrels would partly backfill any US withdrawal. That caps, but does not remove, the export-ban tail.
Gas & Power
Sourced from Bloomberg’s Energy Daily.
The Netherlands wants mandatory gas-storage targets scrapped under the EU’s security-of-supply revamp, after spending almost €1 billion this year filling its reserves. — Bloomberg
Risk lens: Bearish (TTF summer–winter spread) — removing fill mandates weakens forced summer buying. The seasonal spread would carry less structural support.
Headlines are summarised in our own words for comment and analysis, with attribution and a link to the original publisher. Indicative only — not investment advice.